Key Points:
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Ballerina’s budget is reportedly between $80–$90 million, the second highest in the John Wick franchise.
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Opening weekend box office projections suggest a debut between $35–40 million, tracking well within franchise expectations.
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To turn a profit, Ballerina needs to earn over $200 million globally.
Ballerina is the newest entry in the John Wick franchise, set between the events of John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum and Chapter 4. With Ana de Armas starring as Eve Macarro, the film explores a deadly revenge story in the assassin-rich world of the Ruska Roma. As the spinoff aims to carry the momentum of the franchise, here’s a detailed look at its budget, box office projections, and profitability threshold.
What Is the Budget for Ballerina and Why Was It So Expensive?
Ballerina’s production budget reportedly ranges from $80–$90 million, making it the franchise’s second most expensive entry after John Wick: Chapter 4. A significant portion of this increased budget is attributed to extensive reshoots.
According to Deadline, the film initially wrapped in February 2023, under the direction of Len Wiseman. However, the project later underwent two to three months of reshoots, overseen by franchise director Chad Stahelski. Stahelski reportedly reshot most of the film, especially the action sequences, to bring them up to the franchise’s established standards.
Wiseman was not involved in these reshoots, which were categorized in reports as a necessary intervention to fix shortcomings in tone and fight choreography. The production overhaul added both time and cost, making Ballerina one of the priciest installments in the John Wick universe.
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What Are Ballerina’s Box Office Opening Weekend Projections?
Based on recent tracking data from Deadline as of May 15, Ballerina is projected to earn $35–40 million in its opening weekend. This performance would position it third in franchise debuts, between John Wick: Chapter 2 ($30.4 million) and Chapter 3 – Parabellum ($56.8 million), and slightly below the franchise’s average opening of $43.8 million.
For comparison, John Wick: Chapter 4 set a record for the series with a $73.8 million debut. Even though Ballerina may not reach that height, a $35–40 million opening would place it favorably compared to other franchise spinoffs, such as:
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The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes – $44.6 million
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Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore – $42.1 million
Typically, a strong opening weekend equals around 50% of the film’s budget, so Ballerina hitting the $40 million mark would align closely with its production spend and put it on track for commercial viability.
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How Much Does Ballerina Need to Earn to Be a Box Office Success?
A general industry rule suggests that a film must make at least 2.5 times its production budget to break even and turn a profit. This calculation includes:
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Theatrical revenue splits (studios generally keep only around 50–60%)
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Marketing and promotional expenses
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Distribution and backend costs
Applying this rule, Ballerina would need to earn:
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$200–225 million globally to be profitable, depending on whether the final production cost leans toward $80 or $90 million
This figure aligns with the profitability threshold of other large-scale action releases. For context:
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John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum grossed $327 million
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John Wick: Chapter 4 exceeded $447 million worldwide
Given this precedent, and the built-in fan base, Ballerina has a solid path to profitability.
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Who Stars in Ballerina and How Does It Fit in the John Wick Timeline?
Ballerina stars Ana de Armas as Eve Macarro, a young assassin trained by the Ruska Roma, the same organization that raised John Wick. The film is set between the events of Chapter 3 and Chapter 4, establishing a continuity bridge in the franchise.
Key returning cast members include:
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Keanu Reeves as John Wick
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Ian McShane as Winston
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Lance Reddick as Charon
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Anjelica Huston as The Director
New characters are played by:
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Gabriel Byrne
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Catalina Sandino Moreno
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Norman Reedus
The film explores Eve’s mission to avenge her father’s death, continuing the franchise’s core themes of vengeance, loyalty, and survival.
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When Is Ballerina Releasing in Theaters?
Ballerina is scheduled for a theatrical release on June 6, 2025. It will be distributed by Lionsgate, the same studio behind all previous John Wick films.
As of now, no official streaming release date has been announced, but based on Lionsgate’s previous patterns, the film could become available on VOD or streaming platforms within 60–90 days after its theatrical debut. With a box office target of $200–225 million, Ballerina could perform similarly to Chapter 2 and Parabellum, both of which exceeded this range.
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