Summary
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Jessie Buckley leads early Oscars 2026 Best Actress predictions for her moving performance in Hamnet.
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Other frontrunners include Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good), Emma Stone (Bugonia), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), and Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You).
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Several strong contenders like Sydney Sweeney, Jennifer Lawrence, and Cate Blanchett remain in the mix as awards season heats up.
The Oscars 2026 Best Actress race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive categories of the year. With powerhouse performances, festival standouts, and returning Oscar favorites, this field is packed with both emotional depth and star power. From Jessie Buckley’s Shakespearean gravitas in Hamnet to Emma Stone’s artistic reunion with Yorgos Lanthimos in Bugonia, the race is far from predictable — and that’s what makes it thrilling.
Who Are the Top Frontrunners for Oscars 2026 Best Actress?
The Best Actress category at the 2026 Academy Awards is filled with established stars and critical darlings, all delivering standout performances across genres. Based on early screenings, festival buzz, and award-season history, here are the current frontrunners — listed alphabetically.
| Actress | Film | Notable Details |
|---|---|---|
| Cynthia Erivo | Wicked: For Good | Returning as Elphaba in the Wicked sequel; poised for another nomination after 2025’s Wicked success. |
| Emma Stone | Bugonia | Reunites with Yorgos Lanthimos; early reviews hail her performance as one of her career’s best. |
| Jessie Buckley | Hamnet | Leads the Best Picture frontrunner directed by Chloé Zhao; a deeply emotional portrayal of Shakespeare’s wife. |
| Renate Reinsve | Sentimental Value | Cannes breakout praised for emotional nuance; could finally land her first Oscar nod. |
| Rose Byrne | If I Had Legs I’d Kick You | Sundance sensation with sustained critical praise; strong industry support. |
This core lineup currently defines the Oscars 2026 Best Actress landscape, but the season is far from settled. Let’s look closer at what makes these performances stand out.
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Is Emma Stone Headed for Another Oscar With Bugonia?
Emma Stone has become synonymous with Oscar-season excellence and her collaboration with Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite, Poor Things) continues that streak. In Bugonia, Stone is once again earning raves for a daring, complex performance that balances surrealism with emotional honesty.
Having already won Best Actress twice (La La Land and Poor Things), Stone’s relationship with the Academy is golden. Her versatility — moving effortlessly between arthouse ambition and mainstream appeal — keeps her in the spotlight every season.
If Bugonia gains traction in the technical categories or Best Picture race, Stone’s path to nomination is nearly guaranteed. Whether she wins again will depend on how voters respond to Buckley’s emotional intensity versus Stone’s creative audacity.
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Could Cynthia Erivo Make History With Wicked: For Good?
Cynthia Erivo is poised for a remarkable back-to-back Oscars run. After earning a nomination for 2025’s Wicked, she’s expected to return stronger in the sequel, Wicked: For Good.
This installment promises a darker, more emotionally layered take on Elphaba one that gives Erivo room to expand her character beyond the theatrical spectacle. The combination of her powerhouse vocals and dramatic gravitas could easily propel her into contention once again.
If the Wicked sequel lands multiple nominations, Erivo could also share the spotlight with Ariana Grande, who’s generating early buzz for Best Supporting Actress. The Academy has historically loved rewarding musicals that balance artistry and emotion, and Erivo fits that mold perfectly.
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Which Other Actresses Are Still in the Oscars 2026 Best Actress Mix?
While the top five may seem stable for now, the Oscars 2026 Best Actress field remains wide open. The next few months could see late entries and underdog surges from both veterans and newcomers.
Rising Stars in the Running
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Sydney Sweeney – Christy: Her transformative performance in this boxing biopic has drawn praise even from mixed reviews of the film. The Academy often loves “physical transformation” roles, and Sweeney’s rising stardom may help her secure her first nomination.
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Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another: Depending on category placement, Infiniti could compete here or in Supporting Actress. Her performance has been singled out as emotionally raw and fearless.
Oscar Veterans Returning to the Spotlight
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Jennifer Lawrence – Die, My Love
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Laura Dern – Is This Thing On?
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Julia Roberts – After the Hunt
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Jodie Foster – A Private Life
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Cate Blanchett – Father Mother Sister Brother
Each of these actresses has multiple nominations under their belt. Among them, Lawrence and Blanchett appear the most likely to re-emerge in contention depending on how their films perform critically.
Possible First-Time Nominees
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Lucy Liu – Rosemead
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June Squibb – Eleanor the Great
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Tessa Thompson – Hedda
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Emma Mackey – Ella McCay
With the right campaign push, one or more of these could break through, particularly if the Academy leans toward fresh faces in the acting categories this year.
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Who Could Actually Win Best Actress at the 2026 Oscars?
While it’s still early, Jessie Buckley currently has the edge. Her performance in Hamnet has the emotional power and critical backing that often defines a winning Oscar narrative.
However, history shows that early frontrunners can fade especially if films like Bugonia or Wicked: For Good continue building momentum through December and January.
A late-breaking contender (such as Jennifer Lawrence or Renate Reinsve) could also shift the dynamics. But right now, Buckley appears to have struck that elusive balance between artistry and accessibility that resonates with both critics and Academy voters.
Key Dates for the 2026 Oscars Season
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Nomination Announcements: January 22, 2026
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Final Voting Period: March 5–10, 2026
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Oscars Ceremony: March 22, 2026
These months will see a flurry of campaign events, screenings, and guild awards that could redefine the Best Actress race completely. Expect at least one major upset before ballots close it always happens.
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